What's next for Newt?

Newt made a splash in SC and I'm glad he overcame the negative press on his personal life. Is this a watershed in the electoral process? I don't think we've seen the last of this.

What's next for Newt? Did he peak in SC?

I left out the caucuses in this preview.

January  2012

Tuesday, January 31:
Florida
According to RCP's site, Romney leads by as much as 26% and no less than 11% across all of the major polls. He's been camped out there for months and it is unclear to me if Newt has the funding to make a challenge outside of the debate forum. Unless there's a big stumble in the debates, I see this one for Romney.


2012.01.23.1541: UPDATED: The latest Rasmussen poll has Newt up by 9%. While this bump may flatten in a few days (there *is* a debate tonight), I will stay with Romney pending tonight's debate.


 

February  2012

February 2012

Tuesday, February 28:

Arizona

From the azcentral.com website on Jan. 13:

"The Rocky Mountain Poll by the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center finds 41 percent of Republican voters support Romney." There are over 250,000 Mormons in AZ. Romney again.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/community/pinal/articles/2012/01/13/20120113arizona-primary-poll-romney-leads-race.html#ixzz1kD8MdJUD

Michigan

According to electionprojection.com:

"Michigan is the 13th least conservative state, voting 2.08% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average...

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Michigan is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections."

Even Walter Mondale carried his home state in 1984. I like Romney here too despite the anti-establishment rhetoric coming from Newt's camp.

March 2012

Tuesday, March 6 (Super Tuesday):
Georgia
Gingrich will like the home cooking.

 

Massachusetts

Romney returns to a state he knows how to win.

Ohio

Edge to Romney. I think the Rust Belt will like his jobs message.

Oklahoma

Gingrich has huge lead right now and he'll probably hold it.

Tennessee

Gingrich. Vols won't go with a Yankee moderate.

Vermont
Romney.

Virginia

Romney. Will Newt spend money in VA when he's currently not on the ballot? Even if he finds a way onto the ballot, I think it will be too little to late.

Based on what I think will unfold in February, Newt will limp into Super Tuesday. Even if he has some wind in his sails, Romney has the advantage with MA, OH and VA.

As I said in a previous post, I've contributed to both of these guys. Newt's rise was fun to watch, and I would love to see him destroy Obama in a debate; but now I am thinking about August-November. Newt has the thick skin. Does he have the temperament and resources to go the distance? Does Obama and the Media have too much ammunition to go after his character? If all they have on Romney is Bain Capital, I like his chances more; although he must be careful not to come off soft.

At some point, conservatives and moderate Republicans will have to rally behind someone and my someone is Romney.